Spotting vaporware: three follies of would-be technologists « Locklin on science

When I was a little boy in the 70s and 80s,  I was pretty sure by the 21st century I’d drive around in a hovercraft, and take space vacations on the moons of Saturn. My idea of a future user interface for a computer was not the 1970s emacs interface that the cleverest people still use to develop software today, I’d just talk to the thing, Hal-9000 style. I suppose my disappointments with modern technological “advances” are the boyish me complaining I didn’t get my  hovercraft and talking artificial brain. What boggles me is the gaping credulity that intelligent people treat alleged developing future technologies now.

A vast industry of professional bullshit artists has risen up to promote and regulate technologies which will never actually exist. These nincompoops and poseurs are funded by your tax dollars; they fly all over the world  attempting to look important by promising to deliver the future. All they actually deliver is wind and public waste.

Scott Locklin points out that new technology doesn't work on a 20-year plan, it builds on small incremental improvements. So when someone says they need billions of dollars and 20-years they are probably full of shit. Unfortunately the three things he singles out are Nanotechnology, Fusion Technology and Quantum Computers. All things that I found incredibly fascinating and cool. Too bad he is probably right that, while theoretically feasible, we aren't going to see any of them flourish anytime soon.

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Week of Water

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For the first time in my adult life I've been caffeine-free for a week now and I feel fine. Last saturday, the first coffee-free day, I spent in a haze of weird tiredness and a persistent 12 h headache, this was to be expected — especially since I quit cold turkey. Not sure I'd recommend that but I really didn't want a drawn out process and I figured it wouldn't be that bad. It was pretty bad, like a decent hangover, which is basically was. I napped intermittently and by the evening the headache was easing up and things got better.

Day 2, Sunday, was pretty much the same except without the headache, odd little quesy feelings in between feeling lethargic.

The rest of the week went by ok, the first few days I took naps when I came home and was a little more irritable than usual for most of the week, during the day I felt tired at times. Unfortunately my experiment coincided with this summers biggest heat-wave, so some of my sluggishness was probably more due to the weather than being caffeine-free.

Now that I'm becoming more stabilized (some articles say it might take up to 10 days) I can definitely feel that I don't really need the coffee to wake up or stay active, I'd guess I have pretty much the same amount of energy in me but I can't control when I feel energetic, which can lead to drowsiness and sluggishness at inopportune moments. This can be helped by eating a little snack (preferably something healthy) which kicks up the metabolism and off you go.

Would I recommend this to others? I don't know yet, it remains to be seen how it influences my productivity and energy in the coming weeks. As I said the heat has been pretty killer on my productivity (office doesn't have AC and my home computer is in a warm room). It was surprisingly easy to quit, but you should know I'm a morning person who don't actually need coffee for the wake-up itself most of the time. I don't use an alarm-clock either, I wake up sometime around 6 in the morning everyday by myself. If you think you need the pick-me-up to actually function at a time that your body doesn't really want to I wouldn't recommend quitting coffee, otherwise, why not try it?
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Kicking the caffeine-habit

Coffee

Research has shown that one of the main reasons I drink coffee, it helps to concentrate or makes you more alert, is actually not true. The research can be found here: http://www.nature.com/npp/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/npp201071a.html and some good analysis here: http://www.theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=2023 . Basically its not because caffeine isn't an active pharmacological agent, because it is, its that you get used to the effect quite fast and then the caffeine just gets you back up to your baseline (which habitual use has lowered). Now you could still argue that you can control when you are alert by drinking caffeine to get back to your baseline at your choosing instead of when your body-chemistry, sleep-cycle and other factors allow you to be alert but that's not really the same thing, is it?

So as I try to live a rational life and make decisions based on science and reason I am currently typing this while my body is trying to cope without morning coffee. I'm also posting this because research also shows, surprise surprise, that people will hold a public promise more often than a private personal one. That said, after kicking the habit I will probably drink small amounts of coffee when necessary because coffee-drinking when not habitual also works, and is a social thing too.

Oh, and I would be amiss to not admit that my friend Jonatan ( http://twitter.com/zch ) was way ahead of me about this when he quit coffee almost exactly a year ago, which I teased him about. Sorry :)

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Are our phones becoming too much like computers?

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Last week while I was merrily tapping away at my keyboard at work I noticed that my phone (a Nokia N900) felt warm in my pocket. This happens every now and then, I leave an app on and it ends up doing something heavy or a webpage with flash is open. No biggie, I'll just turn stuff off and continue working. The problem was that I had no apps running. Since the N900 runs a full Linux installation, daemons and background apps can sometimes run amok. Being a command-line Linux-guy I looked deeper into my computer-slash-phone and found out that a computer with a Mexican IP-address was running a dictionary attack on SSH (over 3G), trying to break into my phone.

Now, I should point out that first of all I was running an up to date OpenSSH-version (which isn't installed or actived by default for those worrying) and I had a strong password, so I wasn't running a risk of being compromised. But my battery-life wasn't improving either. I shut down OpenSSH* and the next time I need it I'll bind it to WLAN-only, but the question remains:

Are our phones becoming too much like computers?

I, for one, like carrying a full Linux-system in my pocket, but it might require a little too much expertise for most people. The complexity is hidden away in most smartphone OSes, but that doesn't mean it isn't lurking there, in the background. Waiting to be exploited by hackers, virus-writers and other assorted nefarious characters. Be safe and think about what you install on your phone!

*) Turning off SSH in Maemo is a bit tricky - Maemo uses "upstart" for daemons but still keeps the old rc.d-system also, which can be a little bewildering (it was to me). What you need to do is go into "/etc/event.d/sshd" with a text-editor and comment the first line (with #). Then you write "initctl stop sshd" and sshd will be stopped and not restarted automatically. 

Filed under  //   linux   n900   security   thoughts  

Apple collecting, sharing iPhone users' precise locations | Technology | Los Angeles Times

Apple Inc. is now collecting the "precise," "real-time geographic location" of its users' iPhones, iPads and computers.

In an updated version of its privacy policy, the company added a paragraph noting that once users agree, Apple and unspecified "partners and licensees" may collect and store user location data. 

When users attempt to download apps or media from the iTunes store, they are prompted to agree to the new terms and conditions. Until they agree, they cannot download anything through the store.

The company says the data is anonymous and does not personally identify users. Analysts have shown, however, that large, specific data sets can be used to identify people based on behavior patterns.

I don't mean to sound paranoid but privacy-issues should be discussed and not hidden in a opaque privacy policy. The problem with this kind of functionality is that even if its used properly by Apple, there can be legal pressure applied on them to release the data - or it could be stolen. I'd rather not have this functionality and data so readily available.

It should be noted, and is in the end of the article, that Google does more or less the same with their Android-phones as well.

Update: Other blog and news sources make the point that Apple keeps the data anonymized and that this type of policy and wording is needed for apps like Google Maps and Foursquare to work. Anonymizing efficiently is surprisingly hard given enough data - if you track my daily life any wannabe-detective could figure out who I am. Other experiments such as AOL releasing search data and Netflix releasing movie-watching data shows that you can analyze the data to break anonymity.

Then again, if you trust the Steve, he has a reasonable take on location-privacy:

We worry a lot about location in phones," Jobs said. "We have rejected a lot of apps that want to take your personal data and suck it up into the cloud. A lot of people in the Valley think we are really old-fashioned about that, and maybe we are. Privacy means people know what they are signing up for in plain English...Some people want to share more data. Ask them. Ask them every time. Let them know precisely what you are going to do with their data."

From this years D: All Things Digital Conference, via news.cnet.com

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This Mac devotee is moving to Linux - Dan Gillmor - Salon.com

Apple is pushing computer users as fast as it can toward a centrally controlled computing ecosystem where it makes all the decisions about what native applications may be used on the devices it sells -- and takes a cut of every dollar that is spent inside that ecosystem. This is a direct repudiation of its own history, and more broadly that of the larger personal-computing ecosystem, where no one can stop anyone else from writing and distributing software that other people might want to use.

Steve Jobs says Apple is a curator, nothing more. This grossly understates the control. Jobs says Apple has "made mistakes" in being the police, judge, jury and executioner in its Disney-style world, and is working hard to perfect the system.

But this is a disconnect with reality. Central control, no matter how well-intentioned, is itself the problem, not the solution. The "enlightened dictator" is fiction. And dangerous.

I realize that I won't persuade the many people who prefer to live in gated communities, believing they can leave any time they wish. But switching costs will only get higher over time for those who choose to live in the Apple ecosystem.

Dan Gillmor is saying what I have been thinking for a while, and why I bought the HP Mini 210 netbook. It's so that I can reacquaint myself with Linux on the Desktop and see if it could be an alternative (again).

Filed under  //   link   linux   thoughts  

Pixar's Ed Catmull on Management

A very interesting video from 2009 of Ed Catmull, one of the founders of Pixar, showed up in my twitter-feed this morning; its called “Keep Your Crises Small”:

It’s almost an hour long and was filmed at Stanford Graduate School of Business so it's mostly from a management and business perspective about the challenges that Pixar has had even though it has been successful. I spent a few years being pretty interesting in a lot of management and business stuff and read a lot about it; enough to become a little cynical I guess — management theory has some truth to it but there are lots of gurus who don’t really know very much in the end. This presentation is far from some management consultant guru and is packed with interesting and useful knowledge. Ed seems like a very pragmatic manager and he cuts through a lot of bullshit. I’d like to think its because of his technical background but I might be biased there :).

Anyway, watch that if you have any interest in either background information about Pixar or practical management stuff, albeit on a a pretty high level.

Some of my notes:

  • Don’t confuse organizational structure with communications structure, i.e. keep information flowing between teams and everywhere even if you put up a hierarchical structure 
  • Managers hate being surprised, don’t let them know about something new at a meeting among everyone else 
  • Success hides problems. Just like a healthy body can take a lot of unhealthy behavior, a successful company can get away with a lot of bad decisions 
  • People (and teams) are more important than ideas, good teams will do great things with mediocre ideas but mediocre teams will do mediocre stuff with good ideas 
  • People copy the wrong things, don’t copy 3D technology if the really good thing is the storytelling — easy to copy technology but almost always the wrong thing to copy 
  • Always do a post-mortem after projects but always change the metrics so people don’t game the system 
  • There are services that give you the essence of business books and they are really interesting because they show how content-free the books are (Henry: YES!) 
  • There are some phrases that are “truths” and important in the community but doesn’t actually change behavior, “Story is important” (movie making), “Designing from the inside out” (Architecture), “Quality is king” (Engineering) 
  • Human organizations are inherently unstable but fail very slowly, most people won’t notice it and let the success blind them — collapse is then quick. 
  • Constant self-assessment important, look for the hard truths — especially when successful.
Filed under  //   business   thoughts   video  

Tree-rings and IM-protocols

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Since most Instant Messaging clients, like Adium on Mac OS X, support several protocols you don't have to "move on" to something better, you instead just add another protocol when necessary. Since my ICQ-account was getting mostly just spam contact-requests I looked into disabling it. Looking through my contact-list I realized that all the contacts I have in ICQ have been added 8-10 years ago! Most of my contacts no longer use ICQ and it was kind of sad to look through the list of old friends I might not ever talk to anymore - either because I don't really know them anymore or don't know how to contact them. That's the way things go I guess. 

Still, going back to the tree-ring analogy in the title, it's interesting how i've added a new IM-protocol about every 2-3 years, first it was ICQ, then AIM, MSN, Skype, GTalk and now Facebook Chat. Usually the latest IM-protocol is the one that gets the most new users added and Facebook Chat certainly added the most new friends in one fell swoop. Of course that's because it consolidates years and years of old friends and non-geeks into the same system. Facebook certainly tries to be the end-all of social communication but I wonder if we don't get another IM-protocol in a few years time again. Wonder what that will be?

Side note: I like GTalk the most though because it works with multiple sign-ins and its pretty intelligent about sending messages to where I want them to go (works perfectly on the N900 too). Add me there if you haven't already and feel you need/want to IM me, lastname@gmail.com. Skype is another good alternative. Oh and if course I used IRC before ICQ came around and still do... 
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Reading less news, more facts

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I don't do New Years resolutions because they hardly ever work and if they are good ideas you should start these projects when you get the idea and are in the mood. That said, if I made a resolution it would be to read less news and more facts this year. I actually began this project last year.

I used to have this link in my browser that opened up a massive list of different news-sites, based on the theory that if I read the news from enough sources I'd filter out some kind of objective truth about what is happening in the world. Of course this isn't what happens, most news comes from the same source anyway - the news site is just an aggregator nowadays so you should choose the one you feel will point out the news that is important to you. News are also sensational in nature so even if you know what events have occurred you won't get the whole story and no one bothers to get back to you if they are wrong or new information comes up.

Last summer, after a friend of mine extolled the virtues of "The Economist" I bought a couple of issues from the newsstand and took the time to read each issue, realizing that this was the kind of news I wanted. I wanted intelligent and non-sensational reporting about important issues but also with analysis and background. I'm now a subscriber and read every issue with care - usually it takes most of the week. That doesn't matter because the news is old anyway, the news has been chosen to be relevant even 1-2 weeks later and comes with the aforementioned analysis and background it needs.

I still want to know if something important has happened, and because of this I still read a few sites every day. I go the Helsingin Sanomat ( http://www.hs.fi ) which is our countries largest newspaper, they have a great website and good reporting. There I get finnish news and some of the most important international ones. I also skim either New York Times' website ( http://global.nytimes.com ) and/or the BBC News page ( http://news.bbc.co.uk ) for more international news. Last I go to TechMeme ( http://www.techmeme.com ) which collects the latest rumors and information in the tech and Internet-industry - mostly because that is one of my fields of interest.

That's a lot less than the nine (9!) sites that I used to skim/peruse before (BBC, HBL, Google News, NYT, Techmeme, Yle, HS, Der Spiegel and Reddit). I read the news sites by skimming instead of actually reading very many articles. Yes, I am a recovering procrastinator and information addict...

I have a few additional news flows too, I follow several twitter-feeds for both breaking news and news that become old faster or isn't important if I'm busy. I'm trying to cut down on those too because it's too easy to procrastinate and find some weird little tidbit fascinating when you should be doing something more important. Like study, or clean up your desk - like I had planned to today...
Anyway, the idea is that I want more intelligent and thoughtful news that is truly important instead of distracting pop news and also learn real things and not just little interesting tidbits. For that you need longer articles and longer deadlines for the writers. I also hope to learn more in-depth about fewer subjects so I'm not mistaken about the depth of my knowledge, its easy to read a few wikipedia-articles and think you are an expert but actually you don't even realize the depth of your ignorance.

Maybe you too could benefit from rethinking your news-reading habits?

Filed under  //   news   thoughts  

The craft of Dice-making

There is nothing I respect more than expertise! Seeing or listening to a true professional at work is a thing of beauty and it almost brings tears to my eyes. No matter if it's someone cleaning windows, playing piano or writing code - you can see it in the economy of motion, in the emotions they bring or in the efficiency of their code how extremely talented and trained they are. They love what they do and they have done it a million times yet still love it. 

On the Internet you can find all kinds of videos of experts in action, the TED talks are a great example of this ( http://www.ted.com ), they are joyful, awesome, educational and just so passionate about what they do! Not all of them are great of course but for instance Adam Savage's presentation about making a replica Dodo-bird is so full of passion you want to stand up and applaud in your own room afterwards. Burt Rutan's passion for flight brings tears to my eyes and I know the future exploration of space is in good hands when I listen to Bill Stone. 

But these are people who are already big, Adam Savage - for good reason - brings millions of viewers to Discovery Channel with his show, Mythbusters. Burt Rutan has built the prototype of commercial space flight already and Bill Stone is working with NASA. What about the less known geniuses, experts and purveyors of awesomeness? Well, for them, we have Youtube!

Here is a two-part video of Colonel Louis Zocchi, the owner of Game Science and a veteran maker of dice. Yes, dice, and not just the normal casino-dices either, but the super-nerdy 20-sided dice used in Dungeons and Dragons-type games. He is an expert in such a small niche that only geeks and serious gamers know him but as you watch him present his wares you can see and hear the passion! I never needed a 20-sided dice and probably never will, but I find him describing how its made and what makes it good fascinating and I hope you will too!

Videos found via Henri Muurimaa, http://twitter.com/henrimuurimaa

Isn't the democratization of communication and information just plain awesome?
Filed under  //   thoughts   video  

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Long time chemical engineering student back to get his degree. General IT specialist and people person.

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